Dear Colleagues,
Enclosed is our report, Foresight for Smart Globalization: Accelerating & Enhancing Pro-Poor Development Opportunities. In the report we say that:
Foresight, as generally applied within government, industry, and the non-governmental sector, rarely includes an explicit focus on poverty. While foresight exercises typically take into account the impact of long-term political, economic, social, and technological trends, the differential implications of these factors for the lives of the poor tend not to be addressed. The poor, however, will be disproportionately affected by the myriad and intractable problems of the 21st century, including climate change disasters, weak governance systems, financial crises, security threats, and societal disruptions.
This report advocates “pro-poor foresight” which takes the above factors into consideration. It is important to build into foresight analysis consideration of the impacts of policies on the poor as well as the opportunities for eliminating poverty.
We believe that the application of pro-poor foresight for envisioning the future of human development is crucial for ensuring long-term prosperity and sustainability. It is also the right thing to do. This realization was the guiding and motivating force behind a workshop organized by the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF), with support from the Rockefeller Foundation. The workshop, Foresight for Smart Globalization: Accelerating & Enhancing Pro-Poor Development Opportunities, was held last March at the Rockefeller Foundation Bellagio Center in Italy. A diverse group of experts and foresight practitioners took part, and included members from developing and developed countries, the public and private sector.
By the end of the workshop, the dialogue had produced several key findings that illuminated the value of foresight in the developing world, including:
- Providing an important set of silo-busting tools to address a systematic view of the increased complexity of our globalized world.
- Providing decision-makers from both developed and developing countries with a valuable “safe space” to rehearse and test decisions that address deep uncertainties.
- Providing a valuable way to connect the “grassroots to the grasstops” by communicating with the public around an important issue and to solicit feedback and opinions.
- Foresight is most critical in addressing the problems of weak and impoverished nations.
The report summarizes the real-world experiences of participants in conducting foresight in different geographical regions and the barriers faced in applying foresight in decision-making. Subsequently, it describes three interlocking issues—energy & climate change, science & technology, and economic governance—that were discussed in tandem at the workshop.
The report does not give a blue print on how to do “pro-poor foresight”, but instead argues that it ought to be done. We will need to enhance our techniques and the approach of governments and other users of foresight to ensure pro-poor foresight is done.
The report also includes illustrations by Joe Ravetz, graphics facilitator and professor at the University of Manchester. These images were created both during and after the meeting to capture the concepts generated from the workshop. We hope you find the report useful. We welcome your reactions and encourage you to use this report, the concepts in it, and the images it includes, to enhance foresight. Please send me any comments on the report. The report is available electronically here. Please feel free to share this link with others.
One of the other results of the workshop is a website by Geci Karuri-Sebina and Tanja Hichert of South Africa www.foresightfordevelopment.org/ that will focus on pro-poor foresight related activities and networking opportunities.
Foresight must anticipate emerging threats and opportunities, as well as the impacts of policies and major actions. Again, it is important to build into foresight analysis consideration of the impacts of policies on the poor as well as the opportunities for eliminating poverty.
With Best Regards,
Clement Bezold, Ph.D.
Chairman
Institute for Alternate Futures
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